Larry Johnson, Zulfiqar Ali: America Is Running OUT of War Fuel; Will the US and Iran Go Back to War IN 14 HOURS?
by Transition Protocol [7-13-2026] Larry C. Johnson(bio).
Is the Strait of Hormuz open or closed? While Washington and Tehran trade contradictory claims — and after Iranian strikes on a Cyprus-flagged ship triggered a 140-target US missile assault and Iranian retaliation across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and Oman — ex-CIA analyst Larry Johnson lays out the countdown almost no one is covering: America's supply of sour crude, the oil that makes diesel and jet fuel, is nearly exhausted. In this July 13 emergency briefing, Johnson and Dr. Zulfiqar Ali connect the fuel math to the Pentagon's stood-down war rooms, Iran's NPT-withdrawal threat, the Yemen–Saudi flashpoint, and the back-channel ultimatum sources say Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar are preparing for the White House.
Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and State Department counterterrorism official who spent 23 years scripting exercises for US Special Operations Forces. Dr. Zulfiqar Ali reports with direct sources across Pakistan, Iran, and the Gulf. Where our reporting is source-based and not yet independently verified, we say so on screen.
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Larry Johnson – Part II: The Sour Crude Problem: How Long Can the Salt Caverns Keep Bridging the Gap? [7-10-2026]
America’s Fuel Clock Is Running Out — And Iran Just Made Its Move
by Transition Protocol [7-13-2026]
Why the next few hours may decide whether the Strait of Hormuz crisis becomes a global economic shock.
Washington says the Strait of Hormuz is open. Ship-tracking data says otherwise.
That contradiction — playing out in real time on July 13 — sits at the center of this week’s briefing with former CIA analyst Larry Johnson and geopolitical analyst Dr. Zulfiqar Ali. And underneath the headlines about strikes, tolls, and diplomacy is a story almost nobody else is telling: America may be running out of the fuel it needs to keep fighting.
Here’s what’s confirmed, what’s developing, and what’s still just a source’s word — laid out clearly, so you know exactly what you’re reading.
The Confirmed Backdrop
Some of this is not in dispute. In the days before this briefing, a Cyprus-flagged container ship was struck on July 11. The U.S. responded with retaliatory strikes on roughly 140 sites. Iran hit back at targets across the Gulf states. President Trump announced a 20% toll plan tied to the strait. Iran’s foreign ministry has publicly mocked that toll plan.
And then there’s the dispute that’s driving the most search traffic of the weekend: is the Strait of Hormuz actually open? CENTCOM says yes. Iran’s maritime authority says no. Independent ship-tracking footage shows vessels anchored and stalled, not moving. Johnson makes the case bluntly on camera: whatever Washington is claiming, “nothing’s going through.”
The Original Angle: America’s Fuel Clock
This is the part of the conversation that sets this briefing apart. Johnson’s argument, in short: the U.S. runs the bulk of its refineries on sour crude — the type of oil needed to make diesel and jet fuel — and the Hormuz shutdown has removed a significant chunk of the world’s sour crude supply. Combined with a drawdown of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve since March, Johnson says the country’s usable reserve for sustained military operations is close to tapped out.
It’s a striking claim, and it’s important to be honest about its status: this is Johnson’s analysis, not an official government figure. The refinery mismatch itself is real and well documented. The exhaustion timeline is his read of the numbers. Either way, it reframes a lot of what’s happened this year — including, in his telling, why Washington pushed so hard for a ceasefire back in April.
The Diplomatic Undercurrent
According to Dr. Ali’s sourcing — which he describes as insider information, not yet independently confirmed — a back-channel effort involving Pakistan, Turkey, and Qatar is reportedly assembling terms for Washington, with Pakistan’s military leadership said to be involved in delivering them. Separately, he says Iran’s Supreme Leader’s office has quietly signaled openness to serious talks, even as public rhetoric in Iran remains defiant.
Both of these are single-source claims. We’re flagging that clearly because they’re the kind of “sources say” reporting that deserves a healthy dose of skepticism until more outlets confirm it — but they’re also exactly the kind of on-the-ground sourcing this show is built around.
Other Threads Worth Watching
- Iran and the NPT: Johnson argues Iran may be moving toward withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, with the country’s new Supreme Leader potentially reconsidering the religious ruling against nuclear weapons — a “North Korea playbook,” in his words. The NPT withdrawal threat itself has separately been reported by arms-control watchers.
- The Pentagon’s quiet stand-down: Johnson, who spent over two decades scripting exercises for U.S. Special Operations Forces, says crisis-response teams were stood down in mid-June and are now getting mixed signals — a claim we can’t independently verify, but one that lines up with a broader theme in this episode: the gap between tough public rhetoric and the actual state of readiness.
- Yemen and Saudi Arabia: This flashpoint is real and current — Houthi-Saudi exchanges were confirmed the same day as this recording. Johnson’s prediction that it escalates further by week’s end is his own forecast.
- Iran’s price for talks: Both guests converge on the same read — Iran wants frozen assets unfrozen and funds deposited up front before it will show up to negotiate. No more promises.
- The 14-hour clock: Johnson puts a hard, specific window on camera — inside 14 hours, he says, we’ll know whether Washington escalates or steps back. It’s a bold, falsifiable prediction, and it’s the emotional spine of this whole conversation.
Why This Matters to You
Set aside the geopolitics for a second. If the fuel math holds, this isn’t just a Gulf story — it’s a diesel and jet fuel story. Military demand competing with civilian supply means this could eventually show up in what you pay at the pump, what your flight costs, and how fast goods move through the supply chain. That’s the bridge between “war in the Middle East” and “why does this affect me.”
A Note on What We Left Out
Two claims from this episode did not make it into this writeup or any of our promotional material. One involves unverified speculation about a named public official’s health. The other is a casualty figure we could not corroborate against independent reporting. Neither meets our bar for publication — we’d rather lose a headline than run something we can’t stand behind.
Bottom line: the confirmed facts alone — the strike, the retaliation, the toll dispute, the open-or-closed standoff — would be a big story on their own. Layer in Johnson’s fuel-exhaustion math and Ali’s back-channel sourcing, and you get a much bigger, murkier picture of a superpower that may be closer to its limits than its public posture suggests.
We’ll keep you posted as this develops — including whether that 14-hour clock proves right.
— Transition Protocol
Where a claim is source-based rather than independently confirmed, we’ve labeled it as such throughout. That’s a promise, not a disclaimer.