Pepe Escobar: Iran-US; A Hard Rain’s A-Gonna Fall
by Pepe Escobar [11-12-2026] Pepe Escobar(bio).
(RAD: What should be clear by now is that if Trump doesn't find an off ramp, but escalates with more kinetic action against Iran, his humiliation will be even greater. Trump is now in a weaker position, whereas Iran is in a much stronger position, which includes advice & full support from both China & Russia. Does Trump even understand what that means? — RAD)
SHANGHAI – Controversial does not even begin to describe it. For a brief moment, it seemed like Qatar, after a face-to-face in Washington between Trump and Prime Minister Mohammad al-Thani, had found a viable path forward for Iran and the U.S. The emir of Qatar lobbied for it, and the government in Tehran briefly endorsed it (see here and here).
But then, predictably, it all unraveled (see here), given how unrealistic the gambit was.
It was up to Mohsen Rezaee, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC) and personal representative of Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, to finally lay down the law on the Islamic Republic’s seven conditions for resuming negotiations.
Rezaee stressed that “we have asked the Americans to provide a clear and unambiguous response to our conditions, but (…) their response is deceptive.”
It gets worse: “All claims made by the U.S. regarding the continuation of negotiations with Iran and the holding of a meeting in Qatar are lies. They are aimed at reducing economic pressure and lowering oil prices. This includes me meeting with the US Vice President, which is completely false and baseless.”
And then, the clincher: “The Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until Iran’s 7 conditions are met.”
To recap, these are Iran’s seven conditions:
- An end to the war on all fronts, meaning the Axis of Resistance. That necessarily includes Lebanon.
- Full lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.
- The release of Iran’s frozen assets. That goes way beyond figures cited: $6 billion, $8 billion, $12 billion and even $24 billion.
- Lifting sanctions on Iran imposed after that serially dead cat, the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MoU), was signed by Trump and Pezeshkian.
- Withdrawal of all U.S. forces from the parts of West Asia encircling Iran.
- Exempting all Iranian oil sales from sanctions.
- Recognition of the maritime corridor already agreed upon by Iran and Oman.
Right after the Qatari non sequitur, it became clearer what the Trump administration appeared to be focusing on – at least in the short term. Behind closed doors, Secretary of State Rubio gave the game away at the G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in France.
In a nutshell: No renewed war on Iran. At least for now. And also no deal: Rubio and the tattooed Secretary of Forever Wars, Hegseth, are vehemently anti-deal.
And that brings us to the tactic chosen by the Sociopath-in-Chief (until further notice): to strangle Iran economically. With no end in sight. This means the continuation of the naval blockade, plus an array of sanctions, plus the Iron Gate blockade, ranging from railways to the Caspian Sea.
There’s a slight problem: Tehran will not (italics mine) take this lying down. Remember Leader Mojtaba Khamenei’s recent exhortation: No more “neither war nor peace.”
What “neither war nor peace” implies
One of the key reasons that the flawed Qatari gimmick collapsed is that both Beijing and Moscow advised Tehran to withdraw from such kabuki “negotiations” – complete with Rezaee possibly meeting JD Vance in Doha next week.
There was always, of course, the possibility that Trump would be offered an off-ramp. But there was also the risk of another decapitation gambit – the usual suspects killing Rezaee and his team, similar to what happened in June 2025.
The Russia-China strategic partnership may also have decided to invite the agreement-incapable Trump into the Last Chance Saloon during a possible three-way meeting next week in Shenzhen, on the sidelines of the annual APEC summit.
If the meeting goes ahead, Putin and Xi can tell Trump face-to-face: if you go back to diplomacy – as in implementing the MoU – you have our support. And we can help you out of the jam you created.
It’s enlightening to consider how Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has unleashed what is a de facto All Out China policy.
The Leader is directly in charge, as parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf confirmed.
Among the priorities: enlist China’s help in ending the “neither war nor peace” dilemma; promote a greater Chinese role in West Asian security; deepen cooperation in BRICS, the SCO and across the Global South; and get tangible results out of the 25-year China–Iran strategic partnership in investment, technology cooperation and development projects.
And all that was launched just a week before the possible Xi–Putin–Trump trilateral in Shenzhen.
In parallel, China’s special envoy for West Asia, Zhai Jun, is already on the move.
His first stop: Tehran, where he met face-to-face with the immensely competent Ali Bagheri-Kani, the No. 2 official at the SNSC.
Next comes Oman, then the tough nut to crack: Saudi Arabia. There’s no evidence so far that MbS is finally ready to get the message.
This weekend, three U.S. carrier battle groups will be positioned in West Asia. That prospect isn’t changing minds in Tehran. The consensus at the highest levels is that there’s nothing left to negotiate, whether on the Strait of Hormuz or anything else. After all, everything has already been negotiated via the MoU – which Trump tore down.
Bagheri-Kani put it succinctly, after meeting with the Chinese envoy: no more words, spoken or written. Just walk the MoU walk.
Moscow and Beijing are also fully aware that the Trump administration is trying to play the civilization-states of Russia, Iran and China off against one another. For comic relief, the GCC petro-sheikh minions have decided – or were prodded – to set up a joint military headquarters in Kuwait.
To do what? Attack Iran with a doner kebab army?
Trump is desperate for an off-ramp. But obviously not on Tehran’s seven hardcore conditions. He needs something, anything, that he can spin non-stop as a “win.” The IRGC won’t let him off the hook, though, no matter what. If he wants out, there’s a steep price to pay.
Iran’s economy may be in dire straits, but no one in Trump’s circle understands how Global South nations are experts in dealing with scarcity. What matters, in terms of Iran’s national security, is how the IRGC deploys its funds, its technological savvy and its social connections to keep propelling the resistance.
Only kinetic action can break the deadlock
Objectively, we are in complete deadlock territory. Neither Trump nor Tehran can possibly accept the other side’s terms without looking to the rest of the world like the losing side.
And to make it even more unpalatable, both sides think they’re winning. Yet it’s actually Iran that’s running the clock.
Mohammad Mokhber, one of the top advisers to Leader Mojtaba, stated that Iran would regard any form of cooperation with the U.S. blockade as an act of war. His judgment carries weight. He was acting president between Raisi’s chopper “accident” – or assassination – and Pezeshkian’s election.
Moreover, there’s a chorus across Iranian society in favor of a military response to Trump’s attempted economic strangulation.
Tehran, for all practical purposes, has issued an ultimatum to Washington: either settle the final terms through diplomacy or face more war.
That’s the ultimate meaning of the Leader’s exhortation – “neither war nor peace” – coupled with the total refusal of the economic siege. Rezaee’s warning on X – meet the seven conditions or face the consequences – lays the legal groundwork for a possible Iranian preemptive strike.
That’s how the political chessboard has been moving in the last few days. The Leader, Rezaee, Bagheri-Kani and the IRGC are at the forefront – while Ghalibaf and Araghchi are somewhat offstage, running in circles from Doha to Islamabad.
One plausible scenario: the warmongering forces will wait until the Celestial Emperor eyeballs the Sociopath-in-Chief in Shenzhen next week, and then all hell breaks loose.
Dire consequences included. Rezaee has spelled them out. The response will not be limited to “nearby” U.S. bases: “We will also target all distant American bases.” And “we may target certain islands that the Americans believe are beyond the range of our missiles.”
Rezaee advised “all countries hosting American military bases on their territory not to cooperate with any American military aggression (…) We will consider any location from which American aircraft take off to be a threat to us. We are declaring this position now so that they cannot use any pretext in the future.”
It’s absolutely crucial to read the overall mood of Iranian society right now. The consensus is that the ongoing blockade, now compounded by Iron Gate, is intolerable. So are the shady intel ops and the cognitive warfare. So Iran needs to develop a feasible military strategy to counter economic and cognitive maximum pressure.
That’s why the widespread consensus across Iran is that ending the blockade is reason enough for Iran to launch a full-scale preemptive war.
After all, the IRGC command expects an Epstein Syndicate attack anyway, sooner rather than later. That explains the explicit warning that the Iranian response will have no geographical limits – which could include Europe.
November, not April, may in fact become the cruelest month. The odds are high that a hard rain’s a-gonna fall.