by Transition Protocol(opens in new tab) [8-24-2026] Larry C. Johnson(bio)(opens in new tab).

Iran has been formally invited to join the Mecca Agreement — the trilateral defense pact between Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey — with enthusiastic engagement already underway between Islamabad and Tehran, according to sources detailed in this episode. The same day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s long-promised "maximum pressure" sanctions rollout landed with no new named targets, prompting military analyst Larry Johnson to call it "a mouse fart" instead of the "volcanic eruption" that had been advertised. Host Zulfiqar Ali and Larry Johnson break down what it means that Bahrain has asked to join the Pakistan-Saudi military pact, why the United States is now in a structural sour-crude oil shortage, and how China’s multi-year effort to broker Saudi-Iran détente is now visibly reshaping the Persian Gulf.

Larry Johnson is a former CIA analyst and military analyst who has covered Middle East security and U.S. foreign policy for decades. Zulfiqar Ali reports directly from sources inside Pakistani political and military circles. Some claims in this episode are based on privileged source reporting and are clearly marked as developing rather than independently confirmed.

Transition Protocol is a source-driven geopolitical and economic analysis channel focused on evidence-based reporting on the shift away from a unipolar world order, de-dollarization, and great-power realignment.

Trump Asked for an Off-Ramp. Munir Flew to Tehran.

Pakistan's army chief also carried an invitation for Iran to become the fourth member of the Mecca Pact.

Pakistan’s army chief landed in Tehran today carrying an invitation.

Iran has been asked to become the fourth member of the Mecca Pact.

Before he left, Trump called him and asked for an off-ramp.

Tehran’s answer, per a source current to within hours: enthusiastic.

The same morning, the sanctions package promised as the biggest ever landed without naming a company, a country or a product.

Meanwhile America is short of the heavy crude that seventy percent of its refineries are built to run.

Whether any of this holds gets tested after September 6.

6. Paywall teaser box

INSIDE THE PAID BRIEFING (What You’ll Unlock Below):

• What Asim Munir carried into Tehran, and the single word a source used for Iran’s response — reported within six hours of the meeting.
• What Trump asked Munir for by phone before the Tehran flight, and which Gulf state was privy to the conversation.
• Why Bahrain’s crown prince approached Pakistan’s military second-in-command — and which agreement he asked to join, which is not the one you would assume.
• The 70 percent problem: why American refineries cannot run the oil America can still buy.
• The date our guest says nothing serious moves before — September 6 — and what he expects in the two weeks after it.

Larry Johnson’s read is that nothing serious moves before September 6 — which means you have a short window to understand this board before it changes shape...