by Larry Johnson [9-1-2025 published] Larry C. Johnson(bio).

Donald Trump has repeatedly emphasized the importance of the US market for Indian exporters by describing the US as India’s “biggest client” and stating that India “sells us massive amounts of goods,” while the US exports relatively little to India. In recent statements, Trump remarked, “What few people understand is that we do very little business with India, but they do a tremendous amount of business with us. In other words, they sell us massive amounts of goods, their biggest ‘client,’ but we sell them very little.” He called the trade relationship a “one-sided disaster,” arguing that it has been heavily unbalanced in India’s favor for decades.

Really? Rather than accept Trump’s claim at face value, I decided to do some research. Guess what? Trump is wrong! While it is true that the United States is India’s largest export destination and trading partner, with bilateral trade valued at USD 131.84 billion for 2024-2025, which means that US-bound exports account for about 3% of India’s GDP. India’s nominal GDP is conservatively estimated to be $4 trillion dollars. In other words, getting shut out of the US market ain’t exactly a killer for the Indian economy.

So how important is Russian oil to India’s economy? Russia’s oil exports to India (USD 52.73 billion, ~1.3% of GDP in FY 2024-25) are highly important for fueling economic activity, supplying ~30–40% of India’s crude oil imports and ~10–15% of total energy consumption. They directly support:

~95% of transportation (enabling ~14% of GDP),

~30–40% of petrochemical and fertilizer production (key for ~15% of industrial GDP),

and diesel-dependent agriculture (~14–16% of GDP).

Indirectly, through refining and trade (e.g., USD 65 billion in petroleum exports), Russian oil is estimated to have a multiplier effect on the Indian economy between ~2.6–5.3% of GDP. The USD 5.1–25 billion in savings (~0.13–0.61% of GDP) means that the Indian government has more budgetary room or flexibility (“fiscal space”) to spend money on public works, social programs, or subsidies without harming its long-term financial stability or economic health While there are some more expensive alternatives, Russian oil’s cost-effectiveness and reliability make it a critical driver of India’s energy-intensive sectors in 2024-25.

To summarize: India’s exports to the US are notable, but not overwhelmingly critical in macroeconomic terms, given their ~1.9% GDP share and India’s ability to pivot to other markets. But Russian oil is significant for India’s economy. The preceding statistics explain why India is not intimidated by Trump’s stupid threats… India has more to lose by ending its purchase of Russian oil than it does if it stops trading with the United States.

Are you interested in knowing which countries are the largest exporters to the US as percentage of their respective GDPs? Take a look at these numbers:

• Mexico: About 77% of all Mexican exports go to the US, which is roughly 35% of Mexico’s total GDP.
• Haiti: 84% of exports go to the US, accounting for over 20% of Haiti’s GDP.
• Canada: ~75% of exports go to the US, comprising about 24% of Canada’s total GDP.
• Bahamas: 49% of exports are to the US, a substantial share of the Bahamian GDP.
• Nicaragua: 52% of exports, over 15% of GDP.
• Saint Kitts and Nevis: 61% of exports, a significant fraction of GDP.
• El Salvador, Honduras, Guatemala, Dominican Republic, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, Costa Rica: All send 30–57% of their total exports to the US, representing big percentages of their national GDPs.
• Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Israel, Jordan, Belize, Fiji, Cambodia, Tonga: These nations also have notable dependency, with the US market comprising 15–36% or more of their GDP through direct exports.

Trump definitely has leverage over Mexico and Canada. Shutting the US market to those two is a potential death blow to their economies. But did you also notice who is not on the list? The other BRICS founders — i.e., China, Brazil and South Africa. Ditto for other BRICS members, such as Iran and Vietnam. The BRICS countries are buying fewer dollars with each passing day as they settle their trade with their respective currencies. In the past, if Brazil sold China coffee beans, China had to buy US dollars on the international market and send those dollars to Brazil — using SWIFT, for example. Not today. China pays Brazil in RMB and Brazil pays China with Reals. This means there is less demand for US dollars, which means the value of the US dollar is declining.

Maybe this is why Putin, Modi and Xi were laughing their asses off at their impromptu meeting before the start of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit yesterday? They can’t believe that Trump is this dumb.

Here is my Monday chat with Nima:

Larry C. Johnson & Paul Craig Roberts: Trump’s Plan COLLAPSES as Russia Strikes — Xi & Modi Rise!