“Blockbuster” US-China soybean deal update: some good news for American farmers. But mostly bad
by Inside China Business [1-15-2026].
China is again buying US soybeans, in accordance with the framework agreed to in November. Cargoes on order thus far total 10 million tons, providing American farmers some relief.
But soybean prices are drifting lower, while soybean farm expenses are up over 12% since 2024.
Brazil has recently announced a record crop, and insiders there and in China forecast soybean shipments to China will reach 100 million tons in 2026.
The trade deal from November locks in China to 25 million tons of soybean buys, per year, for the next three years from the US. Those volumes are 14% lower than the average from previous years, and are likely to command even lower prices, given massive soybean harvests in South America.
Closing scene, Wulingyuan elevator, Hunan.
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