CHINA’S TRADE SURPLUS SMASHES $1 TRILLION: Decoupling From the US Accelerates

by New Rules [12-10-2025].

The latest customs data reveals a landmark achievement: China is reaping the rewards of deliberate economic restructuring, with exports showing remarkable resilience despite high US tariffs.

The IMF has raised its 2025 growth forecast for China to 5.0%, reinforcing confidence in the economy’s medium-term trajectory.

Trade patterns highlight a strategic global pivot:

🔸Exports to EU: +14.8%

🔸Exports to Australia: +35.8%

🔸Exports to Southeast Asia: +8.2%

🔸Exports to US: -29%

This realignment reduces single-market exposure and strengthens China’s trade resilience under intensifying global protectionism.

Chinese Stock Markets Are On Fire

🔸Once dismissed by global capital, Chinese equities are now drawing renewed domestic and foreign investor interest.

🔸The Shanghai Composite hit a decade high earlier this month.

🔸Hong Kong's Hang Seng index is up 30% in 2025, on pace for its biggest annual advance since 2017.

THE BOTTOM LINE

The IMF now projects 4.5% growth for 2026, reflecting sustained momentum. The strategic challenge ahead is clear: replacing US demand while unlocking domestic consumption, as export headwinds build into 2026.