THE LATEST ESCALATION IN THE UKRAINE WAR STEMS FROM A DONALD TRUMP DECISION
by Larry Johnson [6-29-2024 published].
Larry C. Johnson is an American blogger, political commentator, and former analyst at the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency. He is the co-owner and CEO of BERG Associates, LLC (Business Exposure Reduction Group). He is co-founder of Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity.
No way to make this pretty. Donald Trump’s decision in 2019 to withdraw the United States from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF), which was negotiated during the Presidency of Ronald Reagan, is one reason that Vladimir Putin announced that Russia will start producing medium-range missiles:
The INF treaty banned the production, testing, and deployment of land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometers.
So let us take a look at what President Putin said on Friday at a meeting of Russia’s National Security Council:
As you are aware, several years ago, under a far-fetched pretext, the United States withdrew from this treaty and announced that they would start producing these missile systems.
In 2019, we announced that we would neither produce these missiles, nor deploy them as long as the United States does not deploy such systems anywhere around the globe.
We now know that the United States is not only producing these missile systems, but has brought them to Europe, Denmark, to use in exercises. Not long ago, it was reported that they are in the Philippines. It is unclear whether they have taken these missiles out from the Philippines or not.
In any case, we need to respond to this and decide on our further steps in this regard. It appears that we need to begin producing these attack systems and then, based on the actual situation, decide on where to deploy them to ensure our security, if necessary.
This is an elaborate and potentially deadly game of international chess. The US withdrew from the INF. Russia held its fire and did not launch a program to build such missile systems. Now, after the United States brought these weapon systems to Europe and conducted a military exercise that simulated an attack on Russia, Putin effectively announced that Russia will start building a new group of medium-range cruise and ballistic missiles with an effective range of 500 to 5,000 kilometers.
Given the decrepit state of the Western industrial capacity, it is highly likely that Russia, as it has done with hypersonic missiles, will dramatically outpace and outproduce the West in bringing these new missiles as just one more weapon system it can employ against the West, if needed.
The West is now on notice, just like what took place earlier this week when Russian Defense Minister Belousov warned U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin that Russia will shoot down any U.S. ISR drone operating over the Black Sea. It appears that the U.S. gulped and subsequently cancelled planned flights of the Global Hawk.
Putin’s decision comes on the heels of a report warning that the United States is incapable of producing essential, high-tech weapons without continuing support from China:
‘If we were in a war with China and it stopped providing parts, we wouldn’t be able to build the planes and weapons we needed,’ he said.
A startling report released earlier this year revealed Chinese firms have a stranglehold across 12 critical technologies that are vital to US national security, including nuclear modernization, hypersonic and space technologies.
The study, which was carried out by defense software firm Govini, delivered a damning indictment on the American armaments industry.
‘U.S. domestic production capacity is a shriveled shadow of its former self,’ the report said.
‘Crucial categories of industry for U.S. national defense are no longer built in any of the 50 states.’
Anyone care to make the case that China will acquiesce and sell the United States all of the critical elements needed to keep the American defense industry limping along while U.S. politicians and generals threaten to go to war with China? I think I am hearing nothing but crickets. Of course not. Chinese leaders are neither stupid nor suicidal.
If Donald Trump is serious about de-escalating tensions with Russia and China, his national security team ought to be working on strategies to re-energize nuclear talks to limit further escalation of building new missiles that can decimate Europe. It may be too late, because the United States is negotiating from a position of weakness and Russia and China know this.