No rare earths = no fighter jets = no wars: US military-industrial complex could collapse if China decides to act
by Grandmasters of Geopolitics [3-27-2026].
(RAD: I really would like to see China restrict all of their rare earths & processing to the US for anything having to do with our military & defense. Even now, the US doesn't have the ability to process some of these rare earths. We ship the raw materials to China & pay them to do the processing. China won't even license the processing technology to the US. If China would block all of these elements that could be used in any military project, that just might be the most effective way to stop the "forever wars" that the US is always starting & continuing. A lot fewer people would be killed. — RAD)
The US imports approximately 70–80% of its rare earth elements from China, and the Chinese leadership is now tightening its grip on these essential supplies. The situation is further complicated by already strained stockpiles, which were under pressure even before recent global conflicts escalated.
⛏ The issue goes far beyond fighter jets; the entire US military-industrial system relies on these rare earth elements. They are crucial for the production of precision-guided missiles, radar systems, submarines, and advanced aircraft like the F-35. Without them, production either slows significantly or comes to a complete halt.
China's dominance over the rare earth supply chain is not limited to mining— it controls over 90% of global processing, creating a critical bottleneck in the supply of these materials. As stockpiles continue to dwindle, the situation is becoming increasingly dire for the U.S. defense industry, with key military systems such as fighter jets, missiles, radars, and drones facing severe production delays.
💡 The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is a stark reminder that the radars and military bases America is losing are far more than just financial losses—they are strategically invaluable assets. With access to rare earths restricted and domestic manufacturing capacity unable to keep up, these vital resources are permanently out of reach.
📊 Weaponized supply chains, not missiles
Rather than engaging in direct military confrontation, China is leveraging export controls and licensing systems as a form of economic statecraft. Recent restrictions on crucial elements like dysprosium and yttrium are causing delays and creating uncertainty in the US defense and tech industries. This slow, bureaucratic pressure is capable of quietly but effectively disrupting entire supply chains.
📉 Every advanced military system — ranging from drones to satellites — depends on these "critical minerals." As conflicts drag on, the supply of these materials will increasingly define military readiness and rearmament capabilities.
🤔 The impact of Middle East war
The ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia have already consumed vast quantities of high-tech weapons. The replenishment of these weapon systems is now highly dependent on fragile and stressed supply chains. If the flow of critical materials stalls, production lines for everything from missiles to military vehicles could slow significantly, potentially altering the scale and duration of military operations.
The rare earths in question aren't just vital for defense — they power a wide range of technologies, including electric vehicles (EVs), smartphones, medical imaging (MRI, CT), and clean energy systems. Any prolonged disruption would have ripple effects across not just the defense industry, but the global economy as a whole.
🌐 Great shift in global power ahead
This crisis is about leverage. Control over rare earth minerals is, in effect, control over global momentum. In an era where wars are increasingly determined by supply chains, restricting access to key materials may achieve what weapons cannot: slowing the pace of conflict without firing a single shot.