Larry Johnson: No Negotiations, Iran Will Retaliate, the War Will Escalate

by Larry Johnson [4-19-2026] Larry C. Johnson(bio).

Well, that didn’t take too long. Friday’s false optimism about an imminent peace deal with Iran following Donald Trump’s claims that Iran had agreed to surrender to the US demands, fed wild swing to the positive side in the US stock market and crashed oil prices. Once again, it turns out that Trump was merely manipulating the financial and commodity markets and benefiting wealthy insiders.

There will be no more negotiations between the US and Iran until the US lifts its naval blockade and complies with the 10-points Iran delivered two weeks ago.

On Sunday, Iran said it would not participate in a second round of peace talks in Pakistan with the US this week due to America’s demands and ongoing naval blockade in the Gulf:

“Iran stated that its absence from the second round of talks stems from what it called Washington’s excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant shifts in stance, repeated contradictions, and the ongoing naval blockade, which it considers a breach of the ceasefire,” the IRNA state-run outlet said.

Relations between Iran and the US further frayed on Sunday when the Iranian commercial vessel, TOUSKA, which was en route towards Iran, was intercepted and seized by the US Navy. The vessel has crossed the Arabian Sea into the Gulf of Oman. Kpler’s map shows the last tracked location of the vessel, which was five hours ago (see above). The boarding of the vessel occurred in international waters. The ship is under US, UK, and EU sanctions. Iran vows it will retaliate.

Meanwhile, Iran continues to control who gets to sail through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s 3 conditions for ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz remains intact:

Ships must be commercial, and warships are PROHIBITED. Neither the ships nor their cargo must be linked to hostile countries.

Ships must pass through a route designated by Iran.

Ships’ passage must be coordinated with Iranian forces responsible for the passage.

As I write this late Sunday evening in Florida, one Iranian Telegram channel observed that Iran will be covered with heavy clouds over the next 48 hours… providing excellent cover for launching a new round of ballistic missiles at US and Israeli targets.

Trump is threatening, again, to carry out a massive attack on Iranian power networks and bridges. Iran, for its part, has already programmed its ballistic missiles for retaliatory strikes on the Gulf Arab nations. If Iran succeeds in largely destroying the supply of electricity in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the UAE, then life in those countries — with no air conditioning — will be intolerable by mid-May. Professor Marandi is correct in noting that the high temperatures in those countries will force a mass evacuation. Iran, by virtue of its mountains, has a different weather pattern and is not plagued by the blistering temperatures common to a Gulf Arab late Spring and early Summer.