America’s Ming Dynasty Moment: Is the US Repeating China’s Historic Mistake?

by New Rules [5-24-2025 published].

(This is a stark reminder that Trump's focus on tariffs is misguided. Instead of trying to block advancements from other countries, just because the US has fallen behind, we should refocus our own advancements so as to be competitive in the world market where it matters. A huge related problem is that our educational system is no longer focused on excellence. In 2020 China graduated 3.57 million STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, Math) graduates while the US graduated only 820 thousand. Thus, China is graduating 4.35 times as many STEM students as the US & the results are showing in their many advances. — RAD)

“I set no value on objects strange or ingenious." — The Qianlong Emperor

This dismissal of foreign technology foreshadowed Ming China’s decline. Several centuries later, America’s trajectory is remarkably similar to the Ming—insular, complacent, and dismissive of innovation.

The Ming Parallel: Complacency at the Peak

At its height, Ming China was unmatched in wealth and power—yet it banned oceanic trade, stifled science, and ignored global shifts. Meanwhile, Europe surged ahead with exploration and technology.

Historians call this the “high-level equilibrium trap" —when a dominant power, convinced of its eternal superiority, stops pushing forward.

America shows similar symptoms: crumbling infrastructure, hostility toward nuclear energy, and growing skepticism of AI (per polls).

Meanwhile, China—once backward—is now racing ahead in nuclear power (tripling capacity in a decade, approving 10 new plants) and embracing AI as a tool of progress.

Why the Divergence? A Matter of Expectations

America: Fear of Disruption

• Slow growth (~2%) means most Americans see technology as a risk, not an opportunity.
• Progress disrupts jobs (e.g., internet killing encyclopedias, smartphones ending flip phones).
• Stability feels safer; change threatens livelihoods.

China: Growth as a Given

• Rapid development means tech = rising living standards (from poverty to modernity in a generation).
• Nuclear, AI, and high-speed rail aren’t threats—they’re proof of success.
• The mindset is expansionary, not defensive.

The Geopolitical Implications

If the US continues to reject progress while China accelerates, the 21st century could see a reversal of fortunes—not through war, but through asymmetric advancement. The Ming Dynasty didn’t collapse overnight; it eroded while others raced ahead.